BERLIN (Reuters) - Conventional wisdom says governments that slash spending and hike taxes are punished come election time, but a new academic study and early evidence from austerity-hit countries in Europe tell a different story.

The re-election of Latvia's government in early October showed how forgiving voters can be of politicians who demand huge sacrifices in times of crisis.
Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis cut public sector pay by up to 50 percent in a country rocked by recession and surging unemployment but was returned to office by an electorate which believed he was only cleaning up a mess left by others.
Greek local elections last weekend -- the first real ballot test for a euro zone government imposing draconian budget cuts -- sent a very similar message, even if many saw record low turnout as a warning to the ruling PASOK party.
Prime Minister George Papandreou, who had threatened to call a snap general election if voters turned against his party, ended up snatching control of Athens from the conservative opposition and winning a better-than-forecast 8 of 13 regions.
It is early days in Greece and countries like Portugal, Spain and Britain, whose populations have yet to feel the full impact of austerity measures announced by their governments.
In Ireland, deeply unpopular Prime Minister Brian Cowen is clinging to a razor-thin majority in parliament and could be booted out within months.
As 2011 unfolds, public anger across Europe at a wave of wage cuts, pension freezes and tax increases is likely to grow and the popularity of ruling politicians fall, as it has in many countries already.
-----No backlash
Much may depend on the electoral cycle, with newly elected governments having more legitimacy to impose austerity than those that were already in office before the crisis struck.
But recent history suggests that leaders who introduce unpopular measures can avoid paying the ultimate price with voters, according to a forthcoming paper by Harvard economist Alberto Alesina, Dorian Carloni of the University of California Berkeley and Giampaolo Lecce of New York University.
The authors looked at the 10 largest fiscal tightenings in OECD countries over the past 30 years and found no evidence that the governments that implemented them suffered inordinately at the polls. In fact, the data showed they were less likely to encounter a voter backlash than the average incumbent.
There are special factors at play in Greece. Papandreou ousted the conservatives from power only a year ago, when the public debt and deficit were already spiraling out of control.
It emerged after the election that the outgoing government had fiddled the figures to conceal the fiscal gap, so Papandreou has escaped much of the blame for the country's plight.
He now faces no further electoral tests until the next national vote in three years' time.
In Britain, the coalition government of Prime Minister David Cameron has seen its popularity fall since ousting Labour in May, but can hope the economy will recover from the 81 billion pounds ($129.1 billion) in cuts it plans by the time the next vote takes place.
Other governments, such as that of Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, don't have the luxury of waiting or blaming the opposition for their country's woes.
Zapatero's Socialists, in power since 2004, face a crucial test in May 2011 when Spain holds regional and local elections and another a year later when the next national vote is held.
Spain's 20 percent unemployment rate, anemic growth and the controversial spending cuts, labor reforms and tax hikes Zapatero has pushed through would seem to doom his chances.
Still, some analysts believe the Socialists could yet win a third term in 2012 against the conservatives, whose leader Mariano Rajoy is even less popular than the prime minister.
Zapatero's poll numbers have bounced back in recent weeks after he reshuffled his cabinet -- a strategy also used by Papandreou in Greece and by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
------Doomed by default
Dominique Moisi, senior adviser at the French Institute of International Relations in Paris, says the shock of Europe's debt crisis has given rise to a ""new realism"" among citizens who recognize they have lived above their means and are ready to accept sacrifices -- without necessarily blaming their leaders.
But others believe that attitude won't last, particularly if hard-hit countries on the euro zone periphery struggle for years to emerge from a crisis that has shaken the single currency area.
The event that historical evidence shows would be most likely to push voters over the edge is a default -- a fate some economists believe Greece and possibly Ireland may not avoid.
A 2008 study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed that in 18 out of 19 countries that defaulted over the previous decade, the ruling parties lost the next vote